Sevens is a young woman’s game
… but maybe not too young! Stats reveals a correlation between age and success in this year’s Women’s Sevens World Series
Published by John Birch, April 18th, 2015
4 minute read
What do Australia, New Zealand, Russia, Canada and the United States have in common? After three rounds four of them are in the top five in this year’s Women Sevens World Series – and they are also (on average - with one exception) the youngest teams.
South Africa, Fiji, Brazil, England, Spain. Four of them are firmly rooted at the bottom of the series standings, while the fifth - England - have failed to provide the expected results so far. And they are the oldest teams in the series.
There is clearly much more to sevens than simply putting the youngest team on the field – but the correlation between performance and age over the series so far is striking (for any mathematicians it’s about 75%).
However, there is an exception and that is China. China are actually the youngest team in the WSWS (in Langford this weekend their team will be, on average, a year younger than any other team), but bottom of the table. With an average age of under 23 are they too young and inexperienced?
Perhaps. The only other team that has had an average age of less than 23 was the Australians in Atlanta, and the perennial finalists slipped to fifth.
In fact the data suggests that the ideal team has an average age of about 23-25 - only France have managed to defy this age limit and pick up a top four position with a team aged over 26.
At the other end of the table, Spain’s average 28-year old team has had disappointing season and languish in 11thplace. Fiji, Brazil and South Africa are also over 26 and are 8th, 9thand 11th. England have averaged just over 27 and lie in 6th.
What does this suggest for Langford this weekend? Russia may be the team to watch – they are fielding their youngest team to date – and team that, with an average age of just under 24, seems to be the “perfect” age. Australia, New Zealand and Canada also look well placed, aged 25 or just under.
England have their youngest team since Dubai, so a better performance than in Atlanta might be expected. However rivals France also have a slightly younger team, but the United States are fielding their oldest team of the year.
As for China, with an average age well under the magic 23 mark they may struggle again while at the other end Spain – a year older than any other team – also seem to have time against them. But watch out for South Africa, who have lopped six months off the team that finished 11thand 12thin the last two rounds – could be some surprises!
Of course, this may all be complete nonsense...
Average ages of teams in the first three rounds:China 22.82; Australia 23.00; New Zealand 24.15; Russia 24.57; USA 24.95; Canada 25.62; France 25.90; South Africa 26.24; Fiji 26.42; Brazil 26.91; England 27.18; Spain 28.19
Average age of teams in Langford:China 22.70; Russia 23.92; Australia 24.48; Canada 24.89; New Zealand 25.03; USA 25.21; South Africa 25.83; France 25.97; England 26.77; Fiji 27.17; Brazil 27.70; Spain 28.36;