Preview: Six Nations Round 5

Women's Six Nations Table(After four rounds)

The permutations

In a finish to the tournament the like of which we have not seen for many years, three teams enter the final round with a realistic chance of lifting the Women's Six Nations trophy.

The outcome could get quite complex...

1. Francewill be the 2014 Six Nations champions if...

a. They win or draw against Ireland,or.

b. The lose by less than 19 points,and England then fail to beat Italy by less than 47 pointsminusthe margin by which Ireland beat France

2. Irelandwill be the 2014 Six Nations champions if...

They beat France by more than 19 pointsandEngland fail to be Italy by more than 9 pointsplusthe margin by which Ireland beat France.

3. Englandwill be the the 2014 Six Nations champions if...

Ireland beat Franceand

a. Ireland win by over 19 and England beat Italy by over 9plusIreland's winning margin,or

b. Ireland win by less that 19, and England beat Italy by more than 47 pointsminusIreland's winning margin.

It is possible that there could be a two- or even three-way tie on points difference, at which point the number of tries scored will decide the winner. If that is equal as well, then its a tie.

It is also worth adding here that France have never lost at home in the Six Nations to anyone other than England, and only ever lost by 19 or more points at home twice.

France v IrelandFriday, Stade du Hameau, 18.45

The game of the weekend, Ireland will travel to France aiming to secure a first ever win on French soil in their history - though they lost by only a single point, on the same ground, two years ago.

Winning will be Ireland's first target. Winning by more than 19 points to give them a points lead in the table, will be secondary and the Irish will certainly be focusing on victory first and foremost.

Ireland were impressive in their win over Italy, especially after a shaky start where Italy could and should have taken the lead in front of a big home crowd at the Aviva Stadium, but with Sophie Spence and Claire Molloy to the fore up front, the platform was eventually laid for an excellent win.

It has set them up well for their trip to France - where they may never have won but where they came incredibly close on their last trip. Ireland also beat France last season at full strength at home so they will not lack in confidence. In changes to last weekend's squad Jenny Murphy, Larissa Muldoon and Ailis Egan all return to the starting line up in place of Grace Davitt, Amy Davis and Stacey-Lea Kennedy respectively.  Egan switches to loose-head with Gillian Bourke swapping back into hooker.

However while a win is well within their capabilities, a win of the margin they need seems unlikely.

France know all they have to do is win or draw and a first title and a Grand Slam since 2005 is theirs.

And few could argue this season that they don't deserve it.

Led by the passionate and brilliant Gaelle Mignot, the French pack have been far too strong for all before them this season and after their fine win over England on the opening day, they have hardly put a foot wrong.

The squad is unchanged from that which played against Scotland, with Marie Alice Yahe - who withdrew before the team travelled last week - still absent.

In the backs Shannon Izar and Marjorie Mayans have been excellent outside the wily Sandrine Agricole and Marion Lievre on the wing has been superb.  This one is set to be a great clash but it is hard to look beyond the French at home.

FranceLe Duff - Lievre, Izar, Mayans, Grassineau - Agricole, (m) Troncy – N'Diaye, Diallo, Djossouvi – Koita, De Nadaï – Portaries, Mignot (cap), EzannoReplacements: Salles, Duval, Arricastre, Rabier, Grand, Poublan, Tremouliere, Rivoalen.

Ireland:Niamh Briggs (UL Bohemians/Munster) Ashleigh Baxter (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster) Lynne Cantwell (Richmond /Exiles) Jenny Murphy (Old Belvedere/Leinster) Alison Miller (Portlaoise RFC/UCC/Connacht) Nora Stapleton (Old Belvedere/Leinster) Larissa Muldoon (Bristol/Exiles) Fiona Coghlan (UL Bohemians/Leinster) Gillian Bourke (UL Bohemians/Munster) Ailis Egan (Old Belvedere/Leinster) Sophie Spence (Old Belvedere/Leinster) Marie –Louise Reilly (Old Belvedere/Leinster) Siobhan Fleming (Tralee/Munster) Claire Molloy (Bristol/Connacht) Heather O' Brien (Highfield/Munster)Replacements: Stacey-Lea Kennedy (Cooke/Ulster) Fiona Hayes (UL Bohemians/Munster) Kerrie –Ann Craddock (Saracens/Exiles) Paula Fitzpatrick (St Mary's/Leinster) Amy Davis (Blackrock/Ulster) Hannah Casey (Saracens/Exiles)Grace Davitt (Cooke/Ulster) Jackie Shiels (Richmond/Exiles)

Wales v ScotlandSunday, Talbot Athletic Ground, 14.00

This game will have no bearing on the title but it will decide which side finishes winless this season. All the odds are against Scotland who have had a torrid season, despite some bright shoots of optimism in the likes of Steph Johnson, who is likely good enough to make any of the other 6 Nations sides, and impact sub Lisa Robertson who could develop into a powerful forward runner in time.

But results don't lie and Scotland it is not yet totally out of the question that Scotland could concede 300 points this season (236 so far) with just one try in the credit column.

It's almost impossible to see beyond a Wales win here which would be some relief to frustrated head coach Rhys Edwards who has watched his side slip to two narrow losses and then two more disappointing defeats in recent weeks.

For Wales a clinical performance will be important as finishing has let them down this season despite some strides being made by the likes of Elinor Snowsill, Robyn Wilkins and Elen Evans while Wales have a very strong backrow and world class prop in Catrin Edwards.

They certainly have the tools to improve and they need to go out on a high this weekend. It's hard to see them failing on this front.

Italy v EnglandSunday, Giulio e Silvio Pagani, 15.00

Depending on Friday night's result, this will either be a match of enourmous significance or simply a jostle for a better spot in the table as England will know exactly what's required to win the title if France slip up against Ireland.

If that's the case, Gary Street's side will be on all-out attack but either way England will be targeting a top-two finish so this will be a tough ask for Italy on the back of a sobering defeat in Dublin. For all of their improvements, Italy always struggle against the English  and with two wins already under their belts this season, whatever happens here, they continue to make progress in this competition.

England have been improving since their opening day defeat to France though arguably are still not quite firing on all fronts.

Regardless, they had no problem dispatching Wales and when things started to click for them they looked very difficult to stop. With Emily Scarratt flying, if England get Nolli Waterman back and Scarratt moves into 13 outside Rachael Burford, suddenly England's attacking game looks even more menacing.