Olympic preview: the key pool games

It has received little coverage, but one intriguing fact about the women’s sevens in Rio is that World Rugby have reversed the order of the opening day fixtures, compared with the World Series.

Normally the opening round sees the top seed playing seed three, and the number two seed meeting seed four. This tends to mean a fairly straight-forward opening round, with few critical games. Only in round two does the second seed normally meet the third, in what are invariably near quarter-final deciders.

But in Rio it’s the other way around – possibly so the tournament begins with a bang, and more likely so that the opening game (France v Spain) is primetime for both home audiences (4pm Saturday afternoon). If they had kept to the usual World Series schedule the opening game would have been New Zealand v Spain - at 2am Sunday morning, New Zealand time. As a result, the opening hours of the tournament will be unusually full of critical games.

Here’s our guide to the matches to watch out for in the pool phase.

Saturday 6thAugust

France v Spain (Pool B, 11am local, 3pm BST, 4pm CET)

Although they will still be a tricky tie with Kenya to come for both, the winner of this game will believe that they already have one hand on a quarter-final place.

This, the opening game of the tournament, renews a rivalry that goes back to 2003, when Spain beat France in the final of the first ever European Championship – in France. Spain dominated the first few years, winning almost every time they met up to 2013.

That all changed after 2013 when France took a belated interest in qualifying for the Olympics. Since then they have met a dozen times in the World Series and European Championship (including the final of the latter last year), and Spain have won just twice, with the last win being in against the injury-hit French team at Amsterdam in May 2015.

France therefore start as favourites. However, normally (and especially in the World Series, where the two have been drawn together a lot) France have come into this fixture off the back of a good win against the lowest ranked team, while Spain will have had a tough game against the top side. Never have the two teams have never met the opening round with both teams fresh and ready to go.

Added to that these teams train together regularly. They will know each other’s game inside out. We still think France will edge it but it should be a terrific opening that will get the crowd buzzing.

United States v Fiji (Pool A, 1pm local, 5pm BST, 6pm CET)

Another two teams used to being drawn against each other, these two teams have met 10 times in major tournaments – nine times in the World Series, and once in the 2013 World Cup. The USA hold an 8-2 lead in the series, so again you would expect them to begin as favourites.

Having such a must-win game early on will be a test for both teams. If the USA score first it should settle nerves. On average they have a winning margin of 12 points, so an early lead will provide a feeling of “business as usual”, for both teams. An early score for the Fijiana, on the other hand, would embolden a team with notoriously shaky when it comes to self-confidence

These is a risk, however, that the game might be decided by the referee. There has been a remarkable average of nearly two yellow cards per game in this fixture – evenly divided between the teams. The key to victory may just be keeping all of the players on the field.

New Zealand v Spain (Pool B, 4.30pm local, 8.30pm BST, 9.30pm CET)

Is Spain lose their opening game to France it is essential that they put that behind them and attempt to stay as close to the Ferns as they can. Of course, Spain famously beat New Zealand in London in May 2015, so anything is possible.

However, the average margin of victory for the Ferns is 20 points – and really Spain need to finish closer than that if they are to avoid being the “unlucky third place team” again.

If Spain have beaten France they may be far more relaxed about the game.

Either way, a New Zealand win will put them into the quarter-finals (assuming they beat Kenya in round one).

Australia v Fiji (Pool A, 6.30pm local, 10.30pm BST, 11.30pm CET)

As with Spain two hours earlier, so with Fiji in this game. If they lose their opening game to the USA they have to keep the score down here – and they will have been watch how Spain have got on as they could be rivals for that quarter-final spot.

Fiji have never beaten Australia, either in the World Series or the Oceania championship – their best performance in both competition was a 17-26 defeat in Sao Paulo in this year’s World Series. To maintain their hopes of a quarter-final spot they may have to repeat that.

Sunday 7thAugust

New Zealand v France (Pool B, 11.30am local, 1.30pm BST, 2.30pm CET)

This one should decide the pool, with the winner facing a best third place team, and the loser likely to be looking at a game against the loser of Canada v Great Britain.

New Zealand have won all ten games, and that is unlikely to change. If France slipped up against Spain they will be desperate to keep as close to the Ferns as they can, and certainly do better than the average margin of victory for New Zealand is a massive 21 points.

Brazil v Japan (Pool C, Noon local, 4pm BST, 5pm CET)

The winner of this could – depending on other results – win a place in next season’s World Series by winning this game. If games have gone to form and either Spain or Fiji have lost badly in any of their games, the winner of this game might sneak a best third place spot in the quarters which would in all probability be enough to win that World Series spot.

Even if they miss the quarters, this would give the winner a plum draw in bowl semi-finals.

Canada v Great Britain (Pool C, 12.30 local, 4.30pm BST, 5.30pm CET)

In theory this is a game without form as this is Great Britain’s first game against Canada. In practice they know each other very well indeed.

Both teams are expected to win their opening day games comfortably, so this will be their first big test before the quarter-finals. This will also be the first game bringing teams from the top four medal prospects head-to-head.

Canada have the better seeding due to their performance over the last two World Series, but England had the better of recent head-to-head with two quarter-final wins last season to Canada’s one semi-final triumph in Clermont. In 2015/16 England also had the advantage, winning three out of their five encounters.

This one will go to the wire.

In practice the difference between winning and losing is likely to be the difference between the USA and France, so whatever happens the outcome will be tough quarter-finals. However, the main thing the winner will take out of this will be the confidence and belief that comes from beating one of their main medal rivals – and that will be worth a huge amount.

Australia v United States (Pool A, 1.30pm local, 5.30pm BST, 6.30pm CET)

Assuming games have gone to form, as with the earlier New Zealand v France game, this should decide the pool, with the winner facing a best third place team, and the loser playing the winner of Canada v Great Britain.

They have only met in the World Series, and the United States hold a 5-4 lead in the series with one draw, though Australia hold a slight points lead (the average score being a 14-11 Australian win).

So, on paper, this could be far closer than might be expected – but this is also, perhaps, a sign of Australia’s step by step improvement leading to this year’s World Series title because USA’s last win in the fixture was back in Langford in 2015.

If Australia have gold medal hopes then it is this recent history they will be looking to match.

Bowl semi-finalsstart at 4pm local, 8pm BST, 9pm CET

Gold medal quarter-finalsstart at 5pm local, 9pm BST, 10pm CET