Keeping the dream alive

Great Britain and France already have a place at the Rio Olympics, but for the rest of Europe one chance remains – next June’s Olympic Repecharge. Russia have already one a place in that tournament and three more European places remain open.

Twelve teams will play off in Lisbon this weekend for those three places – the continent's eleven top-ranked teams (discounting France, Russia and the British teams), plus 2015 Division B champions Denmark.

Having played each other as recently as last month, we have a pretty accurate guide to how the teams are likely to perform.

Top seeds areSpain– the only current World Series team in the tournament. After an eminently forgettable start to the 2014-15 season the Spanish have been improving with every tournament, culminating with a place in the final in the of the second Grand Prix tournament in Brive. More importantly they also beat every non-World Series teams that they played in the Grand Prix.

The extended Spanish squad was also at full strength for their last training weekend at the start of July, and they have even played in Lisbon before, when they joined Portugal for a training camp earlier this year.

In short it is very hard indeed to see Spain failing to win one of the three repecharge places – indeed it’s quite hard to see them not winning the tournament.

They only significant barrier to Spanish silverware would seem to beIreland.Spain beat the Irish comfortably 24-12 in their only Grand Prix meeting – but that was also Ireland’s first game, and they improved steadily over the two weekends deservedly winning two plate titles and should present more opposition to Spain – should they meet - than they did in Kazan.

As it was, and despite the fact that they are still on something of a learning curve, the Irish only lost to WSWS teams – England, Spain and France – and they also should take one of the three places.

The Irish also beat possibly their biggest rivals –Netherlands– twice over the series, in both plate finals. As a result the Dutch sit in the dangerous third seed spot and if any of the top three are to miss out you fear it will be the women in orange.

And yet again fate has not been kind to them. AnneMarie van Rossum and Jannicke IJdens are both unavailable for Lisbon (the absence of AnneMarie in particular will be a huge blow). Coach Chris Lane has had to turn to two totally untried players (at international level) who are not even members of the current squad - Francine van den Berg and Elisabeth Geertsema – which, for all of the promise they have shown at club level, can hardly have been a planned move at such a vital tournament.

Their many supporters worldwide are likely to be on the edge of their seats again as at some point this weekend it will be all or nothing, and the Dutch have a record of fragility in key games where they have to win.

That said they were largely untroubled by their most likely rivals last month so should win another year to dream.

Leading the charge to upset at least one of the top three isItaly. Good in Kazan, a slightly different team struggled in Brive and a lack of sevens experience is an Achilles heel for a team that – on paper – has some real stars on show. If they had another year together playing in this form of the game these XVs players could be very good indeed – but they only have a weekend.

TheUkraineshowed their potential with a quarter-final place in Brive, and with Olga Blanutsa have one of the real stand-out players of European sevens. However losing their coach days before the tournament – and especially with his excuse of “job done” (ie. keeping his team in the Grand Prix) - must be disruptive at a time when, as talented outsiders, they need all the good fortune flowing their way. Given that, it is unlikely that they will be the threat they were last time out.

Portugal– especially on home soil – cannot be underestimated, and if any team were to win a surprise place in the repecharge it must be the Portuguese. They have tended to be inconsistent, but given that they should make the last eight without too much problem, they just need one good day – and they are capable of that (as we saw in 2014).

Where the Ukraine have Blauntsa,Germanyhave Alysha Stone, who would be a stand-out player in any team in Europe, if not beyond. However she is absent for this tournament and even with her the German team overall had a poor Grand Prix, being relegated to next season’s Division A – an event that resulted in some very open criticism of the team and management. What effect that may have had on the team can only be guessed – it may even inspire them – but it will not have been helpful in their preparations.

Belgium, on the other hand, will be full on confidence after winning Division A at a relative canter and will be looking to make waves among the opposition they will meet in the Grand Prix next year. A runner-up spot in their pool and a quarter – or even, given the right draw – semi-final place is not totally out of the question. They are certainly quite capable of getting good results against Italy, Ukraine, Portugal or Germany although whether they can go on from there and actually upset the Dutch, Irish or Spanish seems improbable.

Finlandwere the great surprise of Division A, reaching the final despite only being a “best third” on day one. As a result this feels a bridge too far, too soon – though it will be an object lesson in what they should expect next year.

Sweden’s young team will also be on a mission to learn lessons in the hope of winning promotion from Division A next year, having missed out his time around – they are unlikely to bother the top teams very much. The same can also be said forRomania, who were fourth in Division A, and Division B winnersDenmark(whose participation has already won the Danes a sponsorship deal fromSteelcon Europe). For these teams a quarter-final spot would be a triumph – Rio is realistically off the table.

The draw is:

Pool A:Spain, Portugal, Germany, Denmark

Pool B:Ireland, Ukraine, Belgium, Romania

Pool C:Netherlands, Italy, Finland, Sweden

The full match schedule can be found on theRugby Europe website.

Squads:(others will be added as they become known)

Denmark:Sara Mundt Rasmussen, Sille Moller, Sophie Rosgaard, Rosa Luna Gavagna, Pernille Mortensen, Marlene Lindbjerg Jakobsen, Mille Mygind Jensen, Sofie L. Nielsen, Kristina Fontel, Marianne Qvistgaard Hansen, Lizette Drewsen, Maja-Luna Lisbjerg Olesen

Germany:Lisa Naumann (ASV Köln);  Josephine Pora, Leonie Zolker (FC St. Pauli);  Julia Peters, Salome Trauth (Heidelberger RK);  Nora Baltruweit (RC Aachen);  Julia Braun (RK 03 Berlin); Lisa Bohrmann, Steffi Gruber, Lisa Parmetler, Lea-Sophia Predikant (SC Neuenheim);  Uli Borchardt (TSV Nürnberg)

Ireland:Audrey O'Flynn (TID), Jenny Murphy (Old Belvedere/Leinster), Stacey Flood (Railway Union/Leinster), Hannah Tyrrell (Old Belvedere/Leinster), Eimear Considine (TID), Ashleigh Baxter (Cooke/Ulster), Katie Fitzhenry (Blackrock/Leinster), Claire Keohane (UL Bohemians/Munster),  Lucy Mulhall (Rathdrum) (capt), Claire Molloy (Bristol/Connacht), Louise Galvin (UL Bohemians/Munster), Alison Miller (Portlaoise/Connacht), Emma Murphy (Railway Union/Leinster)

Italy:Sara Barattin (Rugby Casale), Lucia Cammarano (Rugby Monza 1949), Federica Cipolla (Umbria Rugby Ragazze), Anna De Rossi (Verona Rugby Ragazze), Silvia Folli (Valsugana Rugby Padova), Elisa Giordano (Valsugana Rugby Padova), Isabella Locatelli (Rugby Monza 1949), Maria Magatti (Rugby Monza 1949), Claudia Salvadego (Valsugana Rugby Padova), Michela Sillari (Rugby Colorno), Sofia Stefan (Rennes - Fra), Paola Zangirolami (Valsugana Rugby Padova)

Netherlands:Anne Hickert, Pien Selbeck, Joyce van Altena, Tessel van Dongen, Sanne Klem, Nikki Weyers, Dorien Eppink, Pleuni Kievit, Francien van den Berg, Elisabeth Geertsema, Lorraine Laros, Tessa Veldhuis.

Portugal:Arlete Gonçalves (S.L.Benfica), Catarina Antunes (S.L.Benfica), Catarina Ribeiro (S. C Porto), Catarina Silva (S.L.Benfica), Christina Ramos (Queen's University Belfast), Daniela Correia (S. C Porto), Isabel Osório (C.R. do Técnico), Leonor Amaral (C.R. do Técnico), Maria Heitor (S.L.Benfica), Maria Vasquez (S.L.Benfica), Marta Ferreira (C.R. do Técnico), Sara Silva (C.R. do Técnico)

Spain:Barbara Pla, Angela del Pan, Berta Garcia, Elizabet Martinez, Iere Etexbarria, Irene Sciavon, Martina Bravo, Maria Casado, Tesesa Bueso, Patricia Garcia, Payla Medin, Vanesa Rial

Sweden:Ninni Johansson Giebat (Göteborg), Emilia Kristiansson (Göteborg), Felicia Radovan (Ronneby), Tova Derk (Exiles), Emma Skagerlind (Enköping), Kerstin Lövendahl (Helsingborg ), Lotta Abrahmnsson (Göteborg), Anna-Lena Swartz (Göteborg), Moa Wejle (The Mamas), Carina Trinh (Exiles), Sanna Westman (Exiles), Emelie Hellgren (Uppsala)