Amsterdam preview: Australia again?

Pool A

New Zealand

Failed to reach the final in London for only the second time in the entire history of the Women’s World Series, losing two games and with it their unbeaten record going back 37 games. Nonetheless they still picked up third place, and also confirmed not only their place in the Rio Olympics but also the retention of their series title. The only significant change from London announced so far is Selica Winiata, who comes in for the injured Tyla Nathan-Wong.

Given all that it will be interesting to see how they play in Amsterdam, as this will be an ideal time for risk-free experimentation, giving newer players greater responsibility. As England showed in the XVs World Cup last year, a depth of experience is a huge asset in any tournament and we would expect coach Sean Horan to make the most of the opportunity he has been given.

That said, it’s hard to believe that will New Zealand not be competing for their third Amsterdam crown, but maybe it will not be quite the nailed-on certainty that it has appeared to be in previous tournaments.

United States

Ever since Atlanta, the United States have been moving ominously up the series rankings and now lie in the vital fourth place, level with France, and just two points ahead of England. However, if they were to finish level with England after Amsterdam, precedence will be given to the team with the best overall points scoring difference in all matches – and on that score England show a huge advantage over both the USA and France. The States must therefore finish ahead of both of their rivals.

And they could well do it. With no serious injury problems from London, they are a team on form with great self-belief, with players such as Vic Folayan a scary prospect give any space at all. With an injury-hit Fiji and perhaps an experimental New Zealand, the draw has arguably been kind to them, and the likelihood of a good quarter-final draw may be enough to have Mexican and Trinidadian rugby players dreaming of an unexpected trip to Rio next year.

Fiji

London was tough for Fiji, not only because they missed out on a quarter-final place, but also because of the injuries they picked up which reduced them to just nine more or less fit bodies by the end of the tournament. It may have been a small bonus, but one advantage of finishing in the bottom four was that at least they only had to play two games on Day Two.

As it was, their Bowl win has, aside from some pretty unlikely results, all but ensured their place in the 2015/16 series. They will have to travel to New Zealand in June for the Oceania Olympic qualifier, but the experience they have had over the past year means that any threat posed by the likes of Papua, Tonga or Samoa to their place in Rio will be minimal.

With all such concerns out of the way, and assuming they can fly reinforcements in in time, Fiji can play this one in a relaxed mood, which may worry their opponents as there is little more dangerous that relaxed Fijiana with rugby ball in hand. Given the draw a quarter-final spot this time could be likely and after that, who knows?

South Africa

Given the resources available to them, quite why South Africa are at the bottom of the series table is hard to fathom. In truth it maybe that, for every advance they make, their opponents make one too and as a result the gap between them and the rest of the series never seems to close.

That said, no other team can be facing regional Olympic qualifiers with quite the confidence that the South Africans will have when they invite the rest of Africa to their home qualifier next month. A greater challenge yet may be holding onto their World Series place in the playoff, which is in September.

On current form is hard to see beyond an 11thplace play-off with China. In London, apart from the occasional flashes of Gadu-inspired brilliance, they rarely threatened the major teams and after just a week it’s hard to see that pattern changing.

Pool B

Australia

Champions in London – and winners over New Zealand – Australia arguably come to Amsterdam as favourites, having turned around poor performances in North America in a dramatic a way as possible.

Coach Tim Walsh will have been particularly pleased to see that the final win was as much as anything, down to the fitness of his squad. While in the last quarter of the final in London, Canada began to show the effects of two days of intense rugby, it was Australia who remain strong and pulled through in the end.

Rio is all but achieved, so Tim and his charges could relax and enjoy the final tournament, but that would not be the Australian way and we can expect that the team will be going all out to win again and put down a marker for next year. Expect green and gold to be on the field right to the tournament’s end.

England

England do not make it easy for their supporters, and it's likely to be tension all the way to the end in Amsterdam.  The still lie in sixth place, but are just two points – one tournament place – behind the USA and France, who are in equal fourth, and – maybe crucially – they start with a significant point difference advantage over both, which simply means that if they were to finish equal fourth with either then England will almost certainly get the nod.

To put it simply Englandmustfinish ahead of both France and the United States – just as they did in Langford. However it is also something that they have failed to do in all of the other four tournaments, so it will not be an easy task by any means.

That is made all the more tough by a draw that sees them with two teams who have no fear of white shirts. Russia’s injury count in London will make England favourites for that key game, but they also have to avoid imploding against Australia in the same way they did against Canada last weekend, where two tries in the final minutes changed a quarter-final with the USA into one against New Zealand.

As World Series broadcasters commented often in London, aside from the flair of Amy Wilson-Hardy and the amazing speed, strength and skill of Jo Watmore,  England sometimes do look like they are playing fifteens. They will have to find something special this weekend, or face the lottery of the European series or next year’s repecharge. They are a long way from Rio at the moment but this is sevens and anything can change over a two-day tournament.

Russia

Despite playing superbly on Day One in London, Russia came away with just one win and – more worryingly – just nine players. Such personnel losses are perhaps to be expected from a team that plays as the Russians do, but flying in replacements (with the massive visa paperwork mountain that that implies for them) is far from ideal.

On the plus side it will give more practical experience to more of their squad, and Russia’s young players have far from underperformed. They retain a theoretical chance of sneaking fourth ahead of England, France and the United States, but practically to do that they really would have to make another final – and even then keep their fingers crossed that their rivals fell in the last eight (if not before).

Some of that is in their hands, and their game against England will be a huge game for both teams. On the plus side, Russia have a great record against England – and come to that against Australia too, especially in Amsterdam – and once in the last eight they are capable of anything. With so many walking wounded it will be a tough battle, but never discount an injured bear.

China

London was a step forward for China who reached the bowl final with a good win over Brazil, but were then outclassed by Fiji. What was apparent was that the series of defeats they have suffered in the series has clearly impacted on confidence – even when they had breaks against some of stronger side players were sometimes hesitant to go for the line without looking for support. Opportunities can be few at this level, and need to be grabbed instantly – there is no time to think and wonder where team-mates are.

It is almost certain that they will again be in bowl tournament with South Africa. However, unlike South Africa they face a far tougher battle to get to Rio after this series finishes – never mind retain their World Series place. This tournament could all be about reviving their belief in themselves in preparation for battles yet to come.

Pool C

Canada

It will be little consolation to the Canadians that their final against Australia in London was one of the best the series has seen, but now that they have tasted one final they will want to do it again. And there is no reason to see why they will not.

First, however, there is the small matter of a place in Rio to be sorted out, but to achieve that they just need reach the quarter-finals (indeed, technically, they do not even need to do that). They will achieve that with some ease we suspect, despite possibly the toughest of the three draws. They 31-0 demolition of England in London shows what this team is capable of, especially with Jen Kish now back in the team and with Karen Paqin and Ghislaine Landry in flying form.

The only downside of a tough pool may be a tough quarter- and semi-final draw, but that will not worry them.

France

France are clinging onto their series fourth place by their fingernails and the question is whether they can hang in there for just one more round. To be honest, it’s not looking good. In London, their patient build-up and great handling was in evidence, but they were clearly missing their trio of injured stars Troncy, Guiglion and more importantly Izar for that explosion of speed and step needed to break the best defensive lines. They have to finish Amsterdam ahead of both the USA and England, and that will probably need a semi-final place – and with this draw even a quarter-final place is not certain. Spain so nearly surprised them in London and the Netherlands beat more or less this squad two games out of three in training two weeks ago.

The French are capable of reaching Rio in Amsterdam, but it will be a tough fight – possibly their toughest of the series to date.

Spain

After 14 minutes that will live in Spanish rugby history forever, hopefully by Friday Spain will be back down to earth again. That win over New Zealand needs to be put away and new challenges taken up, after all after that dramatic win the Spanish only narrowly beat Brazil and then lost all of their Day 2 games.

Nonetheless with Patricia Garcia now fully back to fitness they are a more threatening team than earlier in the season, and will almost certainly trouble the French and Dutch even if a win over Canada is probably unlikely. Play like they did at the start in London and they really could win two games and make the quarter-finals – alternatively play as they did later in that tournament and they may win none at all and be back in the bowl.

Netherlands

Back after a year away, the Dutch have yet again suffered from an awful Amsterdam draw. Bowl winners in their home event for each of the past two years, the Dutch would be overjoyed to make the last eight – and it’s not impossible for them to do it, though it would be quite a turn-up if they managed it.

On the plus side, three tough opponents will mean that they will have to concentrate as they will be second favourite in each game – a place from where they have tended to produce their better performance in the past. Last year when quarter-final place seemed there for the taking they lost to Brazil, who had never previously beaten them. Hopefully that fragility is behind them.

Obviously this is really all about the experience ahead of the real business of the European Championships and perhaps the WSWS promotion play-off in September, in which case having two of their European rivals in the pool is a real bonus.

They learnt a lot in their trip to London and Paris two weeks ago – both the need to concentrate for the entire 14 minutes (which cost them in England), but also the fact that they can compete and beat with the leading teams (as they did with France). We have not seen the last of the orange shirts.